What win rate do you need just to break even?

Beginners assume 50%. With a fixed-payout product it is meaningfully higher, and with a good risk-to-reward ratio it can be far lower. Both cases below.

Why fixed payouts are harsher than they look

On an 85% payout you win 0.85 for every 1 you put at risk, but a loss costs the full 1. That asymmetry means break-even sits at about 54%, not 50%. At a 75% payout it is around 57%.

Four percentage points sounds like nothing. Over a few hundred trades it is the entire difference between a method that works and one that slowly empties the account while feeling roughly even.

Why a good ratio changes everything

Risking 1 to make 2 puts break-even at 33%. You can be wrong two times out of three and still finish ahead — provided you never let a loser run past its stop. That single condition is what makes the arithmetic real rather than theoretical.